Jimmy Stewart vs Charlie Wilson vs Jim Traficant vs Dennis Spisak

I've been doing some thinking recently about the 6th district and our disastrous Congressman Charlie Wilson.

Then with Jim Traficant's release from prison and his admittance that he is thinking about running for Congress....that would make an interesting race. One that could be won by a Republican.

You'd possibly have:

I: Traficant
G: Spisak
R: Stewart
D: Wilson

Who but Jimmy Stewart would come out ahead at the end of that race?

Here's why:

Traficant will pull votes from the northern counties. Especially among the so called Reagan Democrats and union members. If he could pull just 10% of the vote in the northern counties, that would be a game changer.

Dennis Spisak pulled 2% of the vote in 2006 and 5% in 2008. 3 reasons why he'll do better this year if he runs:

1. In 2006 the loons on the left wanted to vote for Strickland over the "evil" conservative Ken Blackwell. Wilson benefited from Strickland's coat tails. This gubernatorial election will not be so great for the socialists' chances. Especially since Kasich is already leading Strickland and the primaries haven't even happened yet! This leads me to believe that any obligation to vote for the democrat because he has a chance to win will be out the window. The green, earth first, "humane" society, tree huggers, car haters, coal haters, etc... will be free to vote their consciences. These people will vote for Spacick. Also, in 2008 Obama was on the ticket and dems were fired up to vote for him....for some reason....this brought lots of democrat voters to the polls. This is not the case now.
   
2. Spisak is on the ballot as a Green candidate. Not an independent. The above mentioned list of freaks will know who to vote for (if they have a question about who the green's are endorsing) because he's on the ballot as a Green candidate.
3. Charlie Wilson voted against the Cap and Tax bill. This enrages the loony left and then numbers 1 / 2 (above) come into play. Wilson's vote will give votes to Spisak in Athens and the commune communities around Amesville and other coal hating folks in the 6th.

Jimmy Stewart will do well in the southern counties (where he is well known and liked) and will pick up the GOP vote in the northern counties. If all he had going for him was this, he could win this under these circumstances. However, considering in one of the worst years to run as a Republican 2008, the GOP candidate (Richard "Dick" Stobbs, former Belmont County Sheriff) received 33%.....this was a candidate that was little known and little financed....under the absolute worst conditions the GOP candidate still received 33%. In 2006, Chuck Blasdel (former Ohio House member from the 1st district) received 38% of the vote against Comrade Wilson. Another little known and little financed candidate....and a bad year for Republicans.
So given that Jimmy Stewart is well known in his former House district and that he just won the 20th Senate district, he is a known entity with lot's of name ID. He also is rated A by the NRA and is endorsed by the Ohio Right to Life organization. Yes, the 6th district is a conservative district. Which is why Charlie Wilson pretends to be one.
All this being said, Jimmy Stewart should receive as a base vote around 40-42%. Then depending on his fundraising and campaigning, adding to that. Which he is a fund raiser and campaigner.


Which brings us to Charlie Wilson. Comrade Wilson has both the left and the right mad at him. (search Charlie Wilson on this blog and you'll see what I'm talking about) His vote for the so called "stimulus" bill has lost him support on the right. (remember, he pretends to be a conservative) and his vote against the Cap and Tax bill has the left angry with him. The only group he'll really be able to rely on are the dems that vote dem because, well they've always voted that way. Traficant will eat into this group up north.
This on top of the fact that he's never had to really fight to keep his job. Does he really even know how to campaign? He had to run as a write-in in 2006's primary due to not collecting 50 valid signatures for his petition.



So, if Jim Traficant were to run in the 6th district as an Independent, I do believe Jimmy Stewart would have a very good chance of winning. Due to the Spisak getting 7-9% and Traficant getting 1-2%. The assumption being (I think it's a fair assumption) that most of these votes would come from Wilson. If Stewart were to keep the 40% base and possibly add to it, it would turn to the GOP column.

I also think he'd have a decent shot even if "beem me up" were not to run. Looking as it does right now that 2010 could be a good GOP year.

One last thing. Can you imagine the attention a race like this would draw?

Jimmy Stewart running against ex-con Jim Traficant running against Charlie Wilson (I'm not Joe Wilson, or Charlie Wilson for that mater, but I voted to increase our national debt by the trillions) running against loony Spisak!